Monday, 21 July 2014

McKinsey & Company projected that there would be 900,000 mobile subscribers in the US by 2000

"In 1980, McKinsey & Company was commissioned by AT&T (whose Bell Labs had invented cellular telephony) to forecast cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000. The consultant’s prediction, 900,000 subscribers, was less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 Million. Based on this legendary mistake, AT&T decided there was not much future to these toys. A decade later, to rejoin the cellular market, AT&T had to acquire McCaw Cellular for $12.6 Billion. By 2011, the number of subscribers worldwide had surpassed 5 Billion and cellular communication had become an unprecedented technological revolution."
Source:  A blog post by Professor Angel Lozano, retrieved 21st July 2014
Note - lots of other great examples of faulty prediction in the same post

No comments: